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Risk factors for Covid 19 death
Posted:May 24, 2020 7:48 pm
Last Updated:May 31, 2020 2:53 pm

Age, sex, obesity, and underlying illness have emerged as risk factors for covid-19 death in the UK, according to the largest cohort study to date published in The BMJ May 22, 2020.

The risk of death increases over age 50. Also risk is greater for males, the obese, or having underlying heart, lung, liver and kidney disease.

A team of UK researchers analysed data from 20,300 patients with covid-19 admitted 208 acute care hospitals in England, Wales, and Scotland between 6 February and 19 April 2020. This study covered about a third of patients admitted hospital with covid-19 in the U The average age of patients in the study was 73 years; ,068 men or 60% were admitted hospital and 8,065 women or 40%.

Increasing age, being , and underlying heart, lung, liver and kidney disease were factors known to cause poor outcomes. Researchers found that obesity was a key factor associated with higher risk of death not highlighted in known data from China.
More math
Posted:May 22, 2020 12:55 pm
Last Updated:May 24, 2020 9:13 am

The numbers of dead from Covid 19 keep piling up. The only part that is less grimly horrifying is that the numbers will lead regime change in the U.S. Trump gives himself and A+ grade for the virus management. My grade is F.

As we open the economy more infections and deaths should follow.

I hope for some drugs and a vaccine next year. Too late for many.

By November some of those happy MAGA folks will find out the infection is not a hoax or a joke. It is deadly to about 5% over 60 year olds with health problems. Maybe even enough to shift the result in some tossup states. We shall see.
Do the math, part two
Posted:May 18, 2020 5:07 am
Last Updated:May 21, 2020 5:13 am

The CDC says about 90,000 have died from Covid 19 in the U.S. But that is likely an under count. More likely about 110,000 if you add in those extra deaths from lung problems early in 2020 when tests were not available. Many states still do not count deaths at homes and deaths without a diagnostic test.

Currently in mid May 2020 about 1,000 die each day in the U.S. With so many states reopening for business and people thinking the worst is over, virus infection will more easily spread. Thirty days from now the result will be obvious for all to see.

At 1,000 per day killed that is 30,000 per month. With 5.5 months to November 2020 election that is another 165,000 dead, assuming no increase from the reopening. My guess is the number will be twice that figure.

Trump is trying to duck responsibility for the fight to beat the virus. But the buck stops with the President, as Truman said. He wants the glory, he gets the blame.

If you think Trump did a great job fighting the virus, then vote for him in November. If you think Trump was inept and failed as a leader, replace him and try Biden for a change.

Stupid is great until people start dying without need to do so.
1 comment
Do the math
Posted:May 18, 2020 4:48 am
Last Updated:May 22, 2020 12:51 pm

The virus is irritating. But we have learned a lot in a short period of time.

For 80% of us the virus is mild or no big deal. 50% have no symptoms but still spread it.

Still for 5% the virus may kill you. Usually it takes 30 or more days to kill someone, but some people die more quickly.

The 1918 to 1919 flu killed between 50 and 100 million worldwide. This one could too.

There are hopeful developments. Drugs are being tested and steps are being taken to improve the odds to beat the virus in hospitals.

Still the fastest vaccine developed to fight a virus is four years, and then getting people vaccinated takes a year or more. HIV-AIDS killed in the eighties, and there is no vaccine yet.

More than 90% of those who die from the virus are males, over age 60, and have major medical issues like high blood pressure, obesity and diabetes.

The research has shown your own body can kill you from a storm of reaction from the virus, so they use Drugs to tame down the inflamed reaction.

Delay getting sick and you have a better chance of surviving this epidemic.

Stay home if you can, stay healthy and survive... Good luck to all. We will need it.
Reopen to what?
Posted:May 8, 2020 5:50 am
Last Updated:May 18, 2020 4:35 am

Science and health advice from doctors and public health experts. Trump rejects that.

The CDC muzzled. The U.S. with the most confirmed cases and the most deaths from the virus. We have failed to do a good job due to inept leaders.

California got lucky with Gov. Newsome stepping up in March 2020. But not enough was done in January, February and early March.

The reopening is foolish as no state meets the criteria for reopening.

If you can stay home, work from home and limit your contacts with strangers.

Wear a mask to protect yourself and others.

Drugs are being tested, and vaccines are being tested.

About 5% were infected in Los Angeles; about 20% were in NYC.

More is learned every day. Better to get infected later.

Stay safe and stay alive.
Hiding away
Posted:Apr 18, 2020 6:06 am
Last Updated:May 8, 2020 5:41 am

Ain't misbehaving, due the virus situation.

Some hopeful signs: The stock market is rebounding. Some trials of approved drugs may find a winner to re-purpose. The curves are flattening. So hospitals are not over whelmed.

American ingenuity is helping to save lives.

Germany is doing a better job with only a 3% death rate compared to confirmed cases. Italy has a 13% rate and the U.S. a 5.2% rate, with CA at 3.6% and NY at 7.4%.

Of course the numbers are inaccurate. Under-counts and over-counts.

Not a good time to be in a nursing home.
Good news
Posted:Apr 11, 2020 2:49 pm
Last Updated:Jan 18, 2021 1:13 pm

People are doing better than expected in staying home so fewer infections and problems. The stock market, a leading indicator, is bouncing back from dire predictions. I hope for some new drug and a vaccine
Social anxiety
Posted:Apr 2, 2020 4:33 am
Last Updated:Jan 18, 2021 1:13 pm

Lots of people suffer from social anxiety. It is normal to feel nervous about meeting new people. But some take it further. One thing getting older helps is the realization that other people often are too busy worrying about themselves to spend too much energy judging me... I learned to stop worrying too much about my appearance when I found out others are busy worrying about their appearance...

So tell yourself you look fine and lovely. It may even be that you do. Of course if you are wearing protective gear and a mask it does not matter too much what you look like without protection...
Been occupied...
Posted:Apr 2, 2020 4:24 am
Last Updated:Jan 18, 2021 1:13 pm

I have not felt like posting here for a while. Seems like the epidemic makes normal talk about life and sex too absurd.

Besides it is hard to meet when you are staying home and not doing unsafe activities.

Since March people are taking the threat of Covid 19 more seriously as the dead bodies pile up. Reality has a way of interfering with our fantasies.

Those who think this is just like regular flu are in for a rude awakening. The optimistic view is about 80,000 to 100,000 dead Americans from Covid 19. If all 330 million in the U.S. get the infection and 1.7% die, then we could lose 5.6 million dead. Serious stuff.

So the sensible are acting as if life and death are at issue. Because it is...

So think and try to flatten the curve. Those who get Covid 19 later when there are drugs to help, and more hospital space, have a better chance of living longer. Distance is your best defense. Hand washing and covering coughs and sneezes helps too. Masks may help too. Lets all try to live long and prosper... So we can still enjoy Star Trek or other inane entertainment. Stay safe at home....
Joe biden
Posted:Mar 3, 2020 3:37 pm
Last Updated:Jan 18, 2021 1:13 pm

I was not happy with Joe as my candidate to save us from trump. But Joe has rallied and made good progress to being a leader who can win. South Carolina did the trick. With Mayor Pete out and Amy out and their endorsement of Joe, it looks like it will be Joe or Bernie as the nominee. I still like Bloomberg but don't see him overcoming his negatives.

Sadly people seem to dislike Mike Bloomberg for his success. the stop and frisk tactic was Rudy J. first and applauded by Trump! Also it seemed to work to cut down crime, even if profiling. going from 650 murders a year to about 300 was a big improvement.

As for harassing women, Mike and his company are far less dirty than Trump in this area.

Lots of big companies get harassment claims. Some are legit and some are not. Many claims date back to the seventies and eighties. The times have changed substantially.

If it comes down to Joe or Bernie, I prefer the more practical Joe. tonight will be important to show who has the momentum to win....
Disaster strikes!
Posted:Feb 27, 2020 10:13 am
Last Updated:Apr 2, 2020 4:09 am

Historically the incumbent president gets re-elected when the economy is rising and loses when the economy is falling in the last few months before the election. So incumbent presidents know this and try to look like winners in the run up to the election.

This year the corona virus is making Trump look like a dumb chump. I hate to root for disaster, but looks like God and Nature have a problem with four more years of Trump. Seems cutting funding the CDC and pandemic preparations was a bad move. Trump is now seeing the results of his stupidity and anti-science views.

Trump is whistling past the graveyard, hoping a mild virus hitting the U.S. Those who know science do not think so. I think the medical scientists are right and Trump wrong.

The stock market is collapsing, and Trump does not want the credit for its fall. Tough since he claimed the credit when the markets were going up. He will get the blame for the fall. Making Pence the virus czar will not save Trump. Shutting the borders will not save the U.S. as the virus is already here.

Some will say 2% lethal is no big deal. But 2% of 300 million people is six million. Normal flu kills about 60,000 a year. A thousand times more dead is a big deal.

Many companies are working on a vaccine, but could take a year with testing to get a safe and effective vaccine. We got a problem and Trump is not up to the fight.

Sad when we knew something would go wrong, but did not expect a virus to take out Trump. He has been shaking too many hands at rallies and could get the virus that way! So sad. Greed and power mad leads to bad results.
Debate tonight at 6 PM Pacific
Posted:Feb 19, 2020 11:50 am
Last Updated:Feb 19, 2020 11:52 am

Tonight Mike Bloomberg gets his chance to debate with the Dems. We will see if he can take the heat. He has said some dumb stuff over the but so what? He can apologize or explain but does anything he said or done reached the bad level of Trump? No way.

Plus the good he did for gun control and getting rid of coal fired power plants makes up for lots of sins. The stop and frisk effort was started by Rudy Giulani and applauded by Trump. So he has apologized. Any worse than the crime bills that Biden pushed or the Iraq war? Trump said he was in favor of the Iraq war on Howard Stern show.

Bernie wants to ban private insurance and give undocumented aliens free Medicare insurance. That rubs many the wrong way. No one is perfect.

Who has the , ego and strength beat Trump? The best one is Bloomberg as he is not a socialist, and neither is the U.S.
1 comment
Bloomberg is my hope
Posted:Feb 17, 2020 12:35 pm
Last Updated:Mar 6, 2020 1:29 pm

The only Democrat that seems strong enough and rich enough to beat Trump is Mike Bloomberg, in my opinion. Biden is showing his age and the gaffes are not pretty.

Mike has lots of baggage, but Trump has much more. Mike wants gun control, reproductive rights for women, closing coal power plants, raising taxes on the rich and cheaper drugs, witth more people with health insurance. He gets things done and was an effective NYC mayor for 12 years.

Trump want to kill Obamacare, believes climate change is a hoax and cares nothing about banning pre-existing conditions as a bar to health insurance, and the lack of healthcare for many.

With Mike paying for his election efforts that frees up people to donate for Dems to take over the Senate and keep the House. We need real change to help the 90% below the top ten percent in income.

Bernie is a non starter, as 75% of Dems do not want socialism and even less of GOP and independents want a revolution. Too many die during the revolution for my taste. Trump wants Bernie as his opponent and he fears Bloomberg, a real billionaire. Lets win with Bloomberg.

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